Node

Socio-Economic Opportunity

Node Leaders

John Mangan

Node Leader - Socio-Economic Opportunity; Project Leader

The University of Queensland

Cristyn Meath

Theme Leader - Planning Change; Node Leader - Socio-Economic Opportunity & Interventions for Change

The University of Queensland

Opportunity

While the economic value created for the construction sector will be heavily concentrated in large urban centres, the associated forestry and timber manufacturing growth would tend towards regionally distributed operations. Non-linear input-output (NLIO) modelling provides the flexibility to incorporate regionally disaggregated analysis across multiple focus sectors while still maintaining robust macro-economic coverage [2, 3]. Innovative Australian tools for characterising the economy and construction industry with high sectoral and regional detail [1, 4], provide the foundations for analysis of the broader socio-economic opportunities from advanced manufacturing growth. Sectoral disaggregation can build on hybrid-IO datasets (Node – Towards a Low Carbon & Circular Economy) and stakeholder insights (Node – Interventions for Change); quantifying the sectoral shocks can incorporate estimates of changes in manufacturing productivity and building life management (Nodes – Design for Extended Building Life and Value-Chain Innovation); with accounting for environmental externalities be informed by Node – Towards a Low Carbon & Circular Economy.

Approach

Hub partners and stakeholders across the process chain will inform the regional and sectoral detail in characterisation of economic structure, and assumptions for tuning the non-linear relationships that model the flow-on effects from manufacturing growth to the broader economy. NLIO models will be used to explore the distribution of socio-economic benefits and trade-offs, subject to different assumptions about the scale, form and timing of growth in EWP manufacturing and use.

Outcomes

Regionalised economic impact analysis that supports the design of government policy changes dictating opportunity for

  1. increased and innovative use of timber in the mid-rise building market,
  2. regional growth in manufacturing capability, and
  3. increased forestry A refine table for use in other forestry, wood manufacturing and construction sector transition contexts.

Project/s

Economic modelling of timber industry and synergy and interaction with systems dynamic model

EWP Industry Audit and Economic Scenario Modelling (alignment with Supply Chain Modelling Tool)

References

  1. Lenzen M, Geschke A, Wiedmann T, et al (2014) Compiling and using input–output frameworks through collaborative virtual laboratories. Science of The Total Environment 485–486:241–251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.03.062
  2. Lewney R, Pollitt H, Mercure J-F (2019) From input-output to macro-econometric model. International Input-Output Association (IIOA), Glasgow, Scotland
  3. Mangan J (2017) Removing poker machines from hotels and clubs in Tasmania: Economic considerations. The University of Queensland
  4. Crawford R, Bontinck P, Stephan A, et al (2018) Hybrid life cycle inventory methods – A review. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 172:1273–1288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.10.176